Affliction Warlock: Spell Hit Evaluation
by, 11-11-2012 at 11:41 PM (26261 Views)
Continuing the Bink Learns About Other Classes Project, as a followup to the previous Affliction Rotation post, Iím looking at Affliction Stats. First off, I should make a note that switching the priority of Haunt in the rotation turned out to be a DPS loss due to the reduced uptime of the spell, which happened because Soulburn was used more often & using up soulshards that would otherwise go to Haunt.
Anyway, the two primary topics for any Affliction Stat post are Haste & Hit. In both cases itís a question of what values to aim for & whether you should add more or go for Mastery instead, with some contention about how much of either you should take. Since this post has become slightly larger than I first planned and I still have more haste plots to generate to nail down a few theories, Iíll just stick with the Hit section for today.
Hit is perhaps the easier one to talk about, so Iíll start there. Typically Hit is the most important stat for any spell caster, as individual spells do quite a lot of damage in Mists. For Affliction, it has a lower value which drops it down around or even under Haste & Mastery. This is because every Affliction ability is either a DoT or a channeled cast, rather than the cast/single hit spells that are the mainstays of other classes. The result is that the damage lost by having to recast an individual spell that missed is only one tick, which can be anywhere from 25% of the total spell damage to less than 10%.
Even though Agony, Corruption and Unstable Affliction have the highest damage return from time spent casting, the actual DPS contribution of these spells is a lot lower, in the order of 11-14% each, because of the long duration of the dots. This means that adding an extra GCD of time to recast a dot is wasting that 11-14% of your dps for just over 1 second. In the case of the channeled spells like Malefic Grasp, they simply fail to start, which only wastes about 25% of the possible damage while you recast. Itís for these reasons that hit isnít worth a lot more than haste or mastery.
Itís for these reasons that some people argue in favour of running Affliction without reaching the hit cap, and going on purely quantitative reasoning theyíd be right. However, the default profiles are already at the hit cap so the value generated will be the absolute minimum it can be. Itís worth noting that the value of hit diminishes as you add more, so going from 98% to 99% total hit is more valuable as going from 99% to 100%. Does this mean that you want to have ~12% total hit instead? (SimCraft uses +/- 1000 to calculate weights, so 1000/340 = 2.94% hit)
So do I want to be hit capped?
The answer is yes, youíll want to be hit capped. The reasons for this are all qualitative and boil down to ďmissing important spells really sucksĒ. Haunt and its 25% damage bonus are certainly important, especially since it requires soul shards to cast, which are scarce enough to begin with. Likewise, Soulburn & Soulswap are fairly important, especially since each dot re-applied has its own chance of missing. Lastly, Agony itself is fairly important to keep rolling at 10 stacks, so if you push your recast too close and it misses youíll lose DPS.
Certainly, on average hit will be worth 90-95% of Haste or Mastery, but the impact of events like these on individual fights will be much higher as the value of Hit is an average of encounters where missing had an impact and those where it had absolutely no impact at all. Coming back to stats, if you have a 1% chance to miss, youíd expect to miss 1 in every 100 spells. However, thereís only a 36.6% chance you wonít miss at all (0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99 * Ö. or 0.99 ^ 100), which means 63.4% of the time youíll miss at least once, and a 26.5% chance youíll miss two or more times (100 * 0.01 * 0.99 ^ 99 which is the chance for 100 different combinations of 99 spells hitting and 1 spell missing in a set of 100).
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